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August 22, 2016

Dear Kirby...

In light of this, can I point you in the direction of this:
(courtesy of Advanced Football Analytics)
As Bill Connelly puts it 
Points Per Trip inside 40
("Scoring Opportunities")
% of 2013 gamesWin%Avg. Scoring margin
5.5 to 7 points18.6%72.8%15.1
5 to 5.5 points13.2%68.4%11.9
4.5 to 5 points13.3%62.6%7.4
4 to 4.5 points13.7%51.8%1.7
3.5 to 4 points8.5%50.4%-3.9
3 to 3.5 points12.5%38.5%-7.6
2 to 3 points12.1%23.1%-14.1
1 to 2 points5.0%4.9%-25.8
0 to 1 points3.0%0.0%-36.0
One other thing about this table: field goals are basically failures. They are obviously useful at times in close games, but settling for field goals is a losing strategy as a whole. Even with a good kicker, averaging three points per scoring opportunity will win you about one-third of your games. (Keep this in mind the next time your team kicks an 18-yard field goal.)
I get you need to have a serviceable kicking option for many situations. I'd posit that those situations don't include 4th and less than four from inside the 35. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I'm also not going to incur the wrath of the Dawgvent if it doesn't work out that one time.
TW

August 19, 2016

Waitin' Since Last Saturday Ep. 44 - SEC preview

We boldly go where everyone else has, but with one third more thunder. No literally, there is actual thunder.

August 18, 2016

Friends don't let friends hang out with Florida Gators

Proof.

And Lochte is already back in the states, while his pals are in a Rio police station. Good times.

August 17, 2016

Because...Go Damn Dawgs

A little love from the UK for University of Georgia success at the Summer Olympic Games in Rio.

UGA Medalist (to date):

University of Georgia Medalists 


Shaunae Miller
  • Gold: women's 400m sprint
Allison Schmitt
  • Gold: women's 4x200m freestyle relay
  • Silver: women's 4x100 freestyle relay
Melanie Margalis
  • Gold: women's 4x200 freestyle relay 
Brittany MacLean
  • Bronze: women's 4x200 freestyle relay
Gunnar Bentz
  • Gold: men's 4x200m freestyle relay
Chase Kalisz
  • Silver: men's 400m individual medley
Amanda Weir
  • Silver: women's 4x100 freestyle relay 
Chantal Van Landeghem
  • Bronze: women's 4x100 freestyle relay 
Olivia Smoliga 
  • Gold: women's 4x100 medley relay 

August 16, 2016

Ugly is ugly

You want a take down of UF from a UF guy? I'll leave this here.

And this is why he's worked up, as all of us should be:
It's no secret that I went to Florida. It's also no secret that I was once a walk-on tackling dummy for Florida's football team. Perhaps because of a little experience inside a major college football program and a lot of experience covering major college football programs, I've never been a "not at my school" person. Large state universities are multi-billion dollar operations with thousands of students and thousands of employees. They're all bound to get caught up in something unsavory. Every Florida graduate who turned up a nose at the way Florida State handled Jameis Winston's case should understand that after last week.
Your school probably isn't any better than any other school when it comes to handling these matters. My alma mater proved once again last week that it certainly isn't.

August 11, 2016

Waitn' Since Last Saturday Podcast

We are back. We (wrongly) speculate about Tim Kimbrough. We miss the Maurice Smith transfer happening. We discuss Illinois football.

In other words, good off season, y'all.

Jerry Palm likes UGA

So much for Tennessee for SEC Champion....

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
BOWLDATELOCATIONMATCHUPPREDICTION
Championship BowlJan. 9Tampa, Fla.Semifinal winnersTBD
Fiesta BowlDec. 31Glendale, Ariz.SemifinalOklahoma vs. Notre Dame
Peach BowlDec. 31Atlanta, Ga.SemifinalClemson vs. Alabama
Nothing too out of line there. Seems like safe picks, right? Then he drops the rest of the Selection Committee Bowl games:

SELECTION COMMITTEE BOWL GAMES
BOWLDATELOCATIONMATCHUPPREDICTION
Sugar BowlJan. 2New Orleans, La.Big 12 vs SECOkla. State vs. LSU
Rose BowlJan. 2Pasadena, Calif.Big Ten vs Pac-12Ohio State vs. Stanford
Cotton BowlJan. 2Arlington, Tex.At-large vs. At-largeIowa vs. Houston
Orange BowlDec. 30Miami, Fla.ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/NDFlorida State vs. Georgia
That's right, he's got Georgia in Miami. If this comes true, wait for Georgia fans freak about how this is another crappy Florida bowl game.

Don't worry UT friends, Palm has you playing on New Years Day in Orlando:

OTHER BOWL GAMES
BOWLDATELOCATIONMATCHUPPREDICTION
Outback BowlJan. 2Tampa, Fla.Big Ten vs. SECMichigan vs. Ole Miss
TaxSlayer BowlDec. 31Jacksonville, Fla.ACC/Big Ten vs. SECNorth Carolina vs. Florida
Citrus BowlDec. 31Orlando, Fla.ACC/Big Ten vs. SECMichigan State vs. Tennessee
Liberty BowlDec. 30Memphis, Tenn.Big 12 vs. SECWest Virginia vs. Kentucky




Belk BowlDec. 29Charlotte, N.C.ACC vs. SECVirginia Tech vs. Texas A&M




Texas BowlDec. 28Houston, Tex.Big 12 vs. SECTexas vs. Arkansas

August 10, 2016

Blutarsky on Smart's Defense

Go read this. It is as thorough dive into what Kirby Smart's defense will be and how he will approach the philosophy of defense, as opposed to the formation or on field stuff. He also gets into his approach to day to day coaching.

The one thing I'll add, and that we are seeing in recruiting, is the focus on finding the atheletes to successfully run that philosophy. Because no matter how good your philosophy is (think Mike Leach's offensive view), if you don't have guys to execute it, you are still just an average coach.

T

August 9, 2016

OOC Hoops Schedule Announced

Georgia announced the OOC Men's Basketball schedule today.

The highlights are the road trip to Clemson on November 11th and hosting Texas in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge on ESPN at 4pm on January 28th.

We catch Tech in Atlanta this year and play in that CBE Hall of Fame Classic where we'll face George Washington and either Kansas or UAB in Kansas City.

Overall, this is the kind of schedule that can get you some NCAA pub, as long as you don't blow a random game in Chattanooga due to free throw shooting.

T

August 4, 2016

Interesting Over Unders for win totals

Courtesy of Bovada. The first that jumps is Tennessee at ten and LSU at 10.5. The Dawgs at 9.5 feels high, too. I agree with Blutarsky that much of that is due to the uncertainty of depth, which is important. The rest is that of the players dealing with an nearly full turnover of the coaching staff and the lost coaching time of having to get everyone on the same page.

I'm not prepared to say Georgia won't win ten regular season games, but I'm not prepared to way they will win more than nine, either.

2016 Regular Season Wins - Alabama Crimson Tide        
Over                                         9½  (-280, 5/14)
Under                                       9½ (+180, 9/5)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Florida Gators          
Over                                         8  (-225, 4/9)
Under                                       8 (+160, 8/5)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Georgia Bulldogs    
Over                                         9½  (+120, 6/5)
Under                                       9½   (-160, 5/8)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets             
Over                                         6½  (-140, 5/7)
Under                                       6½ (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - LSU Tigers  
Over                                         10½  (EVEN, 1/1)
Under                                       10½  (-140, 5/7)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Miami Hurricanes  
Over                                         8  (-130, 13/10)
Under                                       8 (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Mississippi Rebels 
Over                                         9½   (-140, 5/7)
Under                                       9½  (+110, 11/10)

2016 Regular Season Wins - Mississippi State Bulldogs 
Over                                         9½  (+150, 3/2)
Under                                       9½   (-200, 1/2)

2016 Regular Season Wins - North Carolina Tar Heels    
Over                                         9  (-140, 5/7)
Under                                       9  (EVEN, 1/1)

2016 Regular Season Wins - South Carolina Gamecocks
Over                                         6½  (+200, 2/1)
Under                                       6½   (-300, 1/3)

2016 Regular Season Wins – Tennessee Volunteers
Over                                         10 (+120, 6/5)
Under                                       10  (-160, 5/8)


Coach's Poll is out

SIDs Coaches have some strong takes.

Dawgs are 16th, sandwiched between Iowa at 14th and Southern Cal.

August 2, 2016

Well, now I'm depressed

Athlon published their annual anon chat with various SEC coaches about other teams. The UGA comments had a theme:

WE AIN'T GOT NO PLAYERS, Y'ALL

Seriously, though...
“They’re happy with their top two running backs, but I think they’re really worried about the depth offensively and the number of playmakers they inherited. It’s not like what it was in the past at Georgia."
“They’re pretty solid at the No. 1s, but when you dig down the depth chart they don’t have the No. 2s or 3s like Kirby Smart and those guys are used to having at Alabama. The recruiting kind of fell off the last few years under Mark Richt.”
“On defense, Kirby isn’t walking into the same kind of talent he worked with at Alabama. Just one example: They don’t have a linebacker corps; I mean, they just simply don’t have any good linebackers. They’re player deficient right now."
I wonder if any of those coaches are named Jeremy?

In all seriousness, that perception seems prevalent, though. It isn't as interesting read as normal, but still a good look past coach speak.
T

July 29, 2016

Inside the mind of the Georgia fan

Yeah, I know Spencer does this as a thought piece to get himself jacked for the invariable yelling he'll get to do at [FILL IN THE BLANK] every year, but be honest: doesn't this all cross your mind every year?

I'm getting there, y'all.
T

July 21, 2016

Yeah, Georgia's offense wasn't great on 3rd down

Ooffff.

Situational
OffenseDefense
Avg.RkAvg.Rk
Q1 S&P+114.536124.915
Q2 S&P+119.52395.482
Q3 S&P+130.09142.15
Q4 S&P+105.25598.773
1st Down S&P+125.76116.820
2nd Down S&P+125.811109.140
3rd Down S&P+86.8109112.135

Which is born out when you look at the raw stats for 3rd down. 31% conversion rate, good for 120th in DI.

There is no simple answer, as we were middling on 3rd and short rushing plays (16 first downs on 29 attempts) and terrible in every other scenario (under 25% conversion rate total). Ok, we were around 50% on 3rd and short passing, which is good, but why would we ever pass on third and short considering the running game last year? Considering we only gained 96 yards on 9 completions, it wasn't like we were taking downfield shots from a rushing look.

With a different OC here, it is hard to draw conclusions, but it isn't hard to be relieved we aren't faced with the knowledge that the same OC probably would mean either running from a running look or passing from a passing look on 3rd down.

Of course, results vary.
T

July 14, 2016

Dawgs picked to finish third in the East by media

I guess it is time for Butch to put up or, you know, get more bricks.

 
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